Monetary
The interest expense nobody wants to underwrite
Every refinancing at higher coupons crowds out the rest of the budget. The question is not whether rates fall, it is who eats the loss when they do not. Hold duration risk with your eyes open.
Economy reviews
Read the ledger yourself
Governments report to their own scorecard. These reviews go to the primary numbers, debt service, real wages, money supply, energy, and say what they imply for a household balance sheet.
Federal debt / GDP
~123%
Interest now rivals defense
Real wage trend
Flat
A decade of running in place
Money supply
Debased
Savers pay the bill
Labor
Headline jobs, hollow jobs
Payroll prints look strong until you split full-time from part-time and native-born from total. Aggregate strength can coexist with household weakness, and it currently does.
Housing
A generation priced into permanent rent
Supply restriction plus subsidized demand equals a price floor that never breaks. If policy will not fix it, your only lever is income and savings rate.
Energy
Cheap energy is the whole civilization
Industrial economies run on baseload, not intentions. Watch capital spending in generation and refining, it tells you the real forecast long before the politics do.