Stripe
H2 2026Nasdaq
The last great private mark. Payments margin is real, the valuation is the question.
World news
Empires fall on the ledger first
Growth, inflation, policy rates, the IPO calendar, the crash record and every live conflict that touches a supply chain. One page, no anchors, no panel of experts. Positions as of 4 August 2026.
Top economic data
The board, six economies
| Region | GDP | CPI | Policy rate | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 1.4% | 3.1% | 4.00% | Debt service crowding the budget |
| Euro area | 0.7% | 2.2% | 2.25% | Industry still hostage to energy |
| China | 4.6% | 0.4% | 2.60% | Property losses socialised slowly |
| Japan | 0.9% | 2.6% | 0.75% | Yen carry unwind still live |
| India | 6.5% | 4.3% | 5.50% | The one demographic tailwind left |
| United Kingdom | 1.1% | 3.0% | 3.75% | Gilts price political risk, not growth |
Figures are latest reported readings, rounded. Verify against the primary release before you trade on them.
Coming to market
Big IPOs on the calendar
An IPO is insiders selling to you. That is not an insult, it is the mechanism. Ask what the seller knows that the prospectus does not say.
Databricks
H2 2026Nasdaq
Sells shovels to the AI rush. Watch net revenue retention, not the keynote.
Anduril
2026-2027NYSE
Defense software priced like software. Political risk cuts both ways.
Klarna follow-ons
RollingNYSE
Consumer credit dressed as convenience. Credit losses tell the truth first.
Saudi Aramco tranches
OpportunisticTadawul
State sells barrels when it needs cash. Read the fiscal deficit, not the prospectus.
SpaceX secondaries
OngoingPublic / ref. $108
Cash flow now comes from Starlink subscriptions, not launches.
The crash record
Every one of these felt permanent
1929 Wall Street
-89%
25 yrs to recover
Leverage kills before the economy does.
1973 Oil shock
-48%
7 yrs
Energy is the whole cost structure.
2000 Dot-com
-49%
7 yrs
Story stocks need earnings eventually.
2008 Credit crisis
-57%
5 yrs
Housing plus banks is the only true systemic pair.
2020 Pandemic
-34%
5 months
Printing can buy time, not productivity.
2022 Rates reset
-25%
2 yrs
When the discount rate moves, everything reprices.
Peak-to-trough on broad US indices. The pattern is not that markets fall, it is that forced sellers never come back and patient owners always do.
Conflict and supply
Wars are commodity events before they are moral ones
Eastern Europe
ActiveGrain, fertiliser, natural gas
Every ceasefire rumour moves European industrials before it moves the front line.
Middle East
FlashpointCrude, tanker insurance, Strait transit
Freight and insurance rates are the honest sentiment index here.
Taiwan Strait
ColdAdvanced semiconductors
A single fab region underwrites global compute. There is no second supplier.
Red Sea / Horn
DisruptedContainer routing, shipping days
Longer routes are a permanent tax on goods inflation.
Sahel
UnstableUranium, gold, cobalt routes
Nobody prices this until a supply contract fails.
Cyber / grid
ContinuousUtilities, banks, logistics
The war with no front page and no declared start date.
Watchlist
Six numbers that front-run the news
- 01Sovereign interest expense as a share of tax receipts
- 02Two-year yields, not headlines, for the next policy move
- 03High-yield credit spreads: the first honest crack
- 04Tanker and container rates for real-world inflation
- 05Central bank gold buying as a vote of no confidence
- 06IPO withdrawal announcements, not IPO filings
Commentary, not investment advice. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.